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covid and restaurants, draft
I have a longer thing in my head but I am Busy so want to get the core ideas out so they stop bouncing around.
There are more complex approaches, but a simple one is that you're safe if there's no one infected in the room with you.
Say you dine out in a small place, exposure to 10 people. Also that you want to be safe as a medium-term habit, say over 100 meals, so 1000 people. "Safe" meaning 90% chance of no exposure to infected people, so you want community infectiousness to be 1 in 10,000 people. Nobody measures that, so assume an infected person is infectious for 10 days on average, so you want daily new infections to be 1 in 100,000, or 10 per million.
A few countries kept such levels before omicron or at least delta. Now, though, I infer case rates on the order of 1000 per million per day. Or maybe 10,000.
Some dining areas like cafeterias or dim sum palaces can seat 200 people at at time; poor ventilation could mean that by dinner time 1000 people had been breathing the air before you; eating out for life could mean 10,000 meals in your future.
Bon appetit!
There are more complex approaches, but a simple one is that you're safe if there's no one infected in the room with you.
Say you dine out in a small place, exposure to 10 people. Also that you want to be safe as a medium-term habit, say over 100 meals, so 1000 people. "Safe" meaning 90% chance of no exposure to infected people, so you want community infectiousness to be 1 in 10,000 people. Nobody measures that, so assume an infected person is infectious for 10 days on average, so you want daily new infections to be 1 in 100,000, or 10 per million.
A few countries kept such levels before omicron or at least delta. Now, though, I infer case rates on the order of 1000 per million per day. Or maybe 10,000.
Some dining areas like cafeterias or dim sum palaces can seat 200 people at at time; poor ventilation could mean that by dinner time 1000 people had been breathing the air before you; eating out for life could mean 10,000 meals in your future.
Bon appetit!
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