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Do we live in a time of accelerating progress, or one of slowdown and diminishing returns? I used to think the former, for years have thought the latter. It seems to boil down to whether you pay attention to computers or to everything else, like speed or energy use or the general conditions of life.
Krugman reviews a book arguing most of the big transformation happened between 1870 and 1940.
For support, I add Tom Murphy's old post, comparing 1885 to 1950 to 2015.
And finally, a 2013 article talking particularly about America's great slowdown. It invokes both the 1700s first industrial revolution and the late 1800s second revolution, saying the second happened to pick up right as the first tapered off, so by sheer luck we had an extended run of rapid growth.
Edit: I'd note this isn't a claim that there'll never be big transformation. True AI could well be big, though not necessarily positive for most of us. Advanced biotech could be cool. But they're also distant. I'm not seeing anything analogous to electrification of the home, people moving off the farm and then out of the factories, etc. LED lights are neat, but they just lower electricity bills a bit, they're nothing as radical as going from candles and oil to the electric bulb.
Krugman reviews a book arguing most of the big transformation happened between 1870 and 1940.
For support, I add Tom Murphy's old post, comparing 1885 to 1950 to 2015.
And finally, a 2013 article talking particularly about America's great slowdown. It invokes both the 1700s first industrial revolution and the late 1800s second revolution, saying the second happened to pick up right as the first tapered off, so by sheer luck we had an extended run of rapid growth.
Edit: I'd note this isn't a claim that there'll never be big transformation. True AI could well be big, though not necessarily positive for most of us. Advanced biotech could be cool. But they're also distant. I'm not seeing anything analogous to electrification of the home, people moving off the farm and then out of the factories, etc. LED lights are neat, but they just lower electricity bills a bit, they're nothing as radical as going from candles and oil to the electric bulb.