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http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/10/futuristic-physicists/
I wasn't happy with the answer list, but he reminded me that his instructions define "likely" as >50%, so "unlikely for humans" means basically "1-49% likely ever", given the final option of "<1% likely". Still unclear if he meant for intelligent robots to be included in humanity's direct successor species, vs. just somewhat evolved biological descendants. Makes a big difference to a lot of the questions, IMO; I assumed they did count.
It's not designed to show you your results, so if you want to post your answers pay attention. I was like robot cars in 50 years, jetback never, aircars unlikely, teleportation never, robots in 500, longevity in 500, Moon and Mars in 5000, terraforming eventually, FTL never, black hole and astrophysics eventually (robots really matter here), synth food (assuming social use, not lab) unlikely.
I wasn't happy with the answer list, but he reminded me that his instructions define "likely" as >50%, so "unlikely for humans" means basically "1-49% likely ever", given the final option of "<1% likely". Still unclear if he meant for intelligent robots to be included in humanity's direct successor species, vs. just somewhat evolved biological descendants. Makes a big difference to a lot of the questions, IMO; I assumed they did count.
It's not designed to show you your results, so if you want to post your answers pay attention. I was like robot cars in 50 years, jetback never, aircars unlikely, teleportation never, robots in 500, longevity in 500, Moon and Mars in 5000, terraforming eventually, FTL never, black hole and astrophysics eventually (robots really matter here), synth food (assuming social use, not lab) unlikely.