mindstalk: (Default)
I like doing botecs or Fermi estimates, and I also like doing them in reverse, framing a number I already know. I'll be doing the latter here.

Say I want to estimate the GDP of the USSR, not trusting their numbers. I'll posit some facts: population of 290 million, rounded to 300 million (I assume they're less likely to lie about numbers of people.) Subsistence agriculture GDP/capita of $500/year. Modern US GDP $50,000/capita -- but we're talking about 1991, 30 years ago. I know US productivity growth has been meh, so let's say the US was $30,000 back then.

So, Soviet GDP will be a GDP/capita (equivalent) estimate times population. From childhood reading I think I also know something about the Soviet lifestyle and economy: concrete apartment buildings with steam heat and electricity, supermarkets, subways, cars, aircraft carriers. Also expenses like ICBMs and a space program. Yeah, they often had the inferior version of things, but an ugly clunky concrete apartment is still a lot of resources.

So what are some GDP/capita estimates? $1000 seems too low, barely above African poverty, if that. $5000? Sure. $15,000? That's half the US of the time -- we also know the Soviets were a lot poorer than America, so it shouldn't be *higher* than that. So 5k-15k, for a GDP of $1.5 trillion to $4.5 trillion. And for a single figure, I like taking the geometric mean, so $8660/capita, and GDP of $2.5-2.6 trillion.

Wiki says $9200 for the USSR, and Trading Economics gives $36-37K for the US of the time.




As for Wal-Mart, how much could it be making? How many people does it sell to, and how much? I know it started in the US, and failed to expand into Germany, which suggests it has tried to expand. It sells to lots of people, but not everyone. Famously it sells to poor people, so they can't be spending *that* much on it. Many people may go there for groceries and regular household expenses, which suggests $200-400 per month, or $2000-5000/year. How many such regular shoppers? 50 million is certainly a lot in US terms. The US alone can't be 300 million, but maybe it they expanded a lot abroad it could be.

So, 50 million * 2000 = $100 billion/year. 300 million * 5000 = $1.5 trillion. That's a big range! But unavoidable when you don't know much. Geometric mean is $390 billion. Actual number is $514 billion. Not bad. The real figure suggests, at $3000/year per person, 171 million people. Wiki says it's in 27 countries and multiple brands like Asda... though this raises the question of whether the $514 billion was for the whole conglomerate or just "Walmart". Wiki suggests the former, whew!

Date: 2019-03-06 08:37 (UTC)From: [personal profile] mtbc
mtbc: photograph of me (Default)
My impression is that much of Walmart's international stuff hasn't been doing so well, indeed that it'd be no surprise if they didn't retain Asda in the longer term.

Date: 2019-03-06 19:07 (UTC)From: [personal profile] come_to_think
come_to_think: (Default)
IIRC, Fermi's original example was: "How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?"

A much more difficult one, which I have no handle on at all, is: What is the peak pressure rise when you slam the door of a VW (all windows closed)?

Date: 2019-03-14 08:06 (UTC)From: [personal profile] poshmerchant
poshmerchant: (Default)
Soviet lifestyle and economy: ... supermarkets


Grocery stores in USSR were mostly tiny things with minimal selection. A Soviet gastronom was more like a New York bodega or a Montreal depanneur or a Toronto corner store than a supermarket. The only counter-example I can think of is more of a farmer market model with individual vendors having stalls. I would be more inclined to say that the USSR did not have supermarkets.

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