calibrated probability assessment 2

[mindstalk]

I took the two additional tests linked in my last post, and got 80% on the 90% questions for both of them, while scoring higher than predicted on the T/F questions. (15 vs. 13.7 expected, 17 vs. 13.1 expected.)

I then made my own 90% test, and got 85% on it -- would have been 90% but I second guessed one of my answers at the last minute, to my detriment. I may as well share.


1. when was the first Beatle killed?
2. when did yellow submarine air
3. volume of an Olympic swimming pool
4. first commercial radio broadcast
5. when was Eliz 1 born
6. how old was Victoria at death
7. when was Caesar born
8. mass of Mercury
9. mass of Ceres
10. max takeoff mass of a 747
11. new houses built US 2019
12. first crusade
13. 1st Colt revolver
14. population Bangladesh
15. population Haiti
16. Feynman born
17. 1918 pandemic deaths
18. Euler lifespan
19. length of an "18 wheeler"
20. average US elementary school size.



1. 1980
2. 1966
3. 2500 m3
4. 1920
5. 1533
6. 81
7. 100 BC
8. 3.3e23 kg (0.055 Earths)
9. 9e20 kg (0.00016 Earths)
10. 333-440 tonnes
11. 1.2 million
12. 1095
13. 1836
14. 161 million
15. 11 million
16. 1918
17. estimates 17-100 million
18. 76
19. 48-53 feet trailer, 70-80 feet iwth cab
20. 470ish