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Two (three after edit) lines of evidence point to around 1% of the US being infectious with SARS2 right now:
Just officially reported cases are around 210,000 per week, 30,000 per day, 100 per million people per day. Real cases are probably 10-20x that, so 1000+. Assuming a 10 day infectious period, that's 10,000 people per million actively infected -- 1%.
source: https://twitter.com/BNOFeed/status/1716228683612991852
And, someone's model based on wastewater data and history also points to 1% infectiousness:
https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1716497172844175699
with longer term source: http://www.pmc19.com/data/index.php
Is it _actually_ 1%, vs. 0.5% or 2%? I have no idea. But it's more likely near 1% than 0.1%, say.
Walk around, and around 1 in 100 of the people you meet likely have SARS2. You can't even count on "stay home if sick" removing many of them, given asymptomatic periods, 'mildness', and lack of sick leave.
And if you're not in the US? There is no reason why things would be any better where you are. The people around you probably aren't any more current on vaccinations (not that those help much), and outside of East Asia aren't masking more, and even the Asians aren't masking _well_ as far as I can tell.
Edit to add: reported death rate is about 0.42 per million people per day. If the overall infection fatality rate is 1 in 2000, that's an infection rate of 820 per million, and 8200 per million infectious.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/us/covid-cases.html
975 deaths in past week, 975/3/330 = 0.42 per million. (Also, covid is 2.5% of all deaths.)
Just officially reported cases are around 210,000 per week, 30,000 per day, 100 per million people per day. Real cases are probably 10-20x that, so 1000+. Assuming a 10 day infectious period, that's 10,000 people per million actively infected -- 1%.
source: https://twitter.com/BNOFeed/status/1716228683612991852
And, someone's model based on wastewater data and history also points to 1% infectiousness:
https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1716497172844175699
with longer term source: http://www.pmc19.com/data/index.php
Is it _actually_ 1%, vs. 0.5% or 2%? I have no idea. But it's more likely near 1% than 0.1%, say.
Walk around, and around 1 in 100 of the people you meet likely have SARS2. You can't even count on "stay home if sick" removing many of them, given asymptomatic periods, 'mildness', and lack of sick leave.
And if you're not in the US? There is no reason why things would be any better where you are. The people around you probably aren't any more current on vaccinations (not that those help much), and outside of East Asia aren't masking more, and even the Asians aren't masking _well_ as far as I can tell.
Edit to add: reported death rate is about 0.42 per million people per day. If the overall infection fatality rate is 1 in 2000, that's an infection rate of 820 per million, and 8200 per million infectious.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/us/covid-cases.html
975 deaths in past week, 975/3/330 = 0.42 per million. (Also, covid is 2.5% of all deaths.)