mindstalk: (Enki)
A comment on the previous post has me rethinking or wanting to clarify some things.

I was comparing the input space to the output space; this wasn't meant as a direct measure of the work done, though that was probably unclear. Ranking 25 candidates *does* have an space of 25! possibilities, vs. a smaller output set. Making 9 votes *does* cover a space of 512 possible votes, with 512 possible election outcomes. But it's also true that voting STV is nothing like a linear search of 25! possibilities, and for the work we'd better look at the computations involved.

Closed party list: your decision is a linear O(N) search through the number of parties, finding the maximum. The physical act of voting is probably trivial. I was going to say that proportionality can increase freely for the voter, but that's not true: lowering the threshold to get in means you can have smaller and thus more viable parties. 12% means no more than 8 parties can get in, 6.25% means 16, 3% means 32, 1% means 100 parties could get in. (In reality some will be big and taking up much of the vote, but still.) Whatever the threshold, though, learning of a new party is constant time: you compare them to your current favorite. Proxy voting would be exactly the same, with fewer warm bodies in seats.

Open party list: similar, except now N is the number of candidates. If proportionality is high, there may be lots of candidates, and physically voting might mean a log(N) search to find yours -- or linear, if the ballots are randomly unordered. A huge district with 100 members could have very fine-grained proportionality but also mean each party running up to 100 candidates -- big ballot. Still, pretty simple to do and understand.

STV: ranking N candidates is a sorting problem, O(N log(N)) in the ideal case, though possibly O(N^2) in practical naive sorting. Learning of a new candidate means comparing them to on average half the other candidates if you're simple, or to log(N) of them if you're clever. The physical act of voting... well, depends on the machine probably; Cambridge has you filling out a wide array of scantron bubbles, and I've needed a second ballot in both elections due to messing up the first one. I'm sure there are better ways.

Re-weighted score voting (RSV): O(N), you go down the list of candidates and rate each one. A new candidate simply means rating that one. Much simpler, cognitively and physically.

Referendums: lj:notthebuddha pointed out a twist. Naively, voting on N proposed laws is simply O(N), like score voting: go down the list voting up or down. 9 laws would mean 512 possibilities, but only 9 decision points. New law, new decision point. But it's possible for proposals to interact, so that in a worst case you are having to consider all the different possibilities, with exponential explosion: 10 laws meaning 1024 possibilities!

In practice, they don't interact that much; even more important, you don't get to vote on that many items at once, and pruning is enforced by time and temporal ordering. The Swiss vote on 3-4 referendums at a time. In a high-frequency legislature, you vote on one law at a time. US state ballots I don't know; voting every 2-4 years may allow them to pile up, vs. the Swiss every 3 months.

On the flip side, as I said before, here any increase in work is matched by an increase in power over the outcomes, whereas it's unclear that the higher workload of STV compared to proportional score voting has any benefit whatsoever, and the benefit of either of those compared to open party list depends on how much your grouping of the candidates cuts across the parties they've grouped themselves into. (That is, open party list means your vote for a successful candidate can spillover into another party member, based on the party list; STV/RSV lets you spillover to an unrelated candidate of your choice. And Cambridge elections are ostensibly non-partisan.)

***

Also on the information theory front: picking among from say 8 candidates or parties means expressing 3 bits of choice, every 2 to 6 years based on standard practice these days. 32 candidates, 5 bits. An American would be very lucky to have 8 choices, say if both main parties were running 4 candidates in their primaries. (Though California now has a top-two "open primary" system which can mean lots of choices up front... I think this is a terrible system, but another time for that.) Commonly we have like 1 bit: incumbent or some obscure challenger, so it's basically "keep or toss?" Bit rate from 3/2 years (8 candidates, House) to 1/6 year (incumbency, Senate).

By contrast, 9 referendums a year means 9 bits of voter input a year. The Swiss actually seem to be average between 12 and 16. Plus, any law or treaty could be subjected to referendum, and anything could be an initiative, so so there's some harder to measure aura of voter input as I imagine the legislature tries to avoid anything obviously unpopular, while Congress could do lots of unpopular (or not do lots of popular) things as long as those weren't more important than key issues of crime and the economy.
mindstalk: (Enki)
Slapdash post, from a comment I made elsewhere:

Eh, there's tradeoffs. I actually live under STV for Cambridge (MA USA) city election; having to rank 9-25 candidates can be a real cognitive pain, I find. (There's 9 seats, so you have to rank at least that many to have a full voice, and we had 25 candidates last election.) And 9 seats from a district means a threshold of at least 11% for a faction to get a distinct voice; if a group is spread evenly as 8% around the country, too bad.

Conversely, closed party list might as well be proxy voting for the party leaders, save for the dim possibility of revolt, and open part list gives you some control over specific candidates but you're still voting for a party group, not make-your-own-list in STV. Much simpler to vote for though, pick a candidate or party, bam you're done.

And thing is, STV extracts a lot more information from you but doesn't do much with it, since all that ranking precision just controls how your vote trickles through the count, without making things that much more representative in the end. To invoke math, ranking 25 candidates means 25! (factorial) or 1e25 possibilities, but the final result is simply choosing 9 out of 25, which is a much smaller number (2 million, or 2e6). Conversely, party list converts a simple vote directly into a party percentage.

And frequent referendums a la Swiss democracy would give me much more direct influence on the laws that pass, for still far less work than ranking 25 candidates, most of whom won't win... Voting in 9 referenda has me picking out of 2^9 options, and there are 2^9 possible outcomes of 9 laws passing or failing. Again, the work involved is directly proportionate to the result achieved.
mindstalk: (Default)
Big elections in Canada and the UK this past week; context and analysis. But first, the Canadian election in stick figures! Some annotation required. (Potatoes?)

Canada )

UK )
mindstalk: (Default)
Some of the content of the voting talk I gave January, aimed at the application of anime club, in which we typically have a few dozen nominated series, from which we select 6 to watch the next term. This is, in the jargon, a multi-winner election, as opposed to the single-winner ones we almost always use in the United States.

The first question is what do you want: majority rule, or proportional representation (PR)? For political purpose I strongly favor PR -- we all live here, like it or not; the legislature is meant to represent the people, but make better decisions than them due to small size and increased information; PR helps it actually represent the people.

But for a club with free and open membership, majority rule might work better, keeping the character of the club stable against random newcomers, so e.g. a club doesn't have to watch Naruto if there's a surge to 1/6 Naruto-favoring membership, possibly driving out old-timers and going into a death, or at least change, spiral.

So I've gone from thinking club should obviously be PR, to thinking maybe it should have two stages: a majoritarian one, filtering the nomination list for candidates acceptable to the majority or at least a lot of the club, followed by PR within that. This is actually close to what we've ad hocced up in the past.

Various options:

Majoritarian

* Bloc voting, or at-large. N slots, so each voter has N votes, non-stackable.
* Approval voting: N *candidates*, and each voter has N votes, non-stackable. Basically a voter can vote up or down (approve) every candidate. Good for single-winner elections, very majoritarian for multi-winner.
* Range/score voting: one can give a score to every candidates. Approval is a degenerate case, where one only has 1 or 0 as options.

Semi-proportional
These give proportional results if the proportions of candidates match the voting blocs, and/or voting is decently coordinated.

* Limited voting. N slots, voters have fewer than N votes, non-stackable. If minority votes aren't split over many candidates, they can get representation. The fewer the number of votes, the more proportional it is, down to one vote, which is called single non-transferable vote (SNTV). OTOH, if a candidate gets more votes than it needs to win, those are wasted; if a group of allied candidates gets enough votes to win, but no individual does, those votes are wasted and none wins.
* Cumulative voting: voters have multiple votes, but they *are* stackable. If everyone stacks all their votes it's like SNTV, so one can think of it as SNTV with the option of splitting up a vote among many candidates you like.

Proportional
Less relevant to us, but included for completeness

* Single transferable vote (STV): really complicated to describe or count
* Re-weighted range voting: range (or approval) voting, the top winner is selected, then all the ballots are given the weight of 1/(1+ sum of weights given to winners), so someone who voted fully for the first winner now has a ballot of 1/2 weight. Easy to program, hard to count by hand.
* Party-list: like SNTV or cumulative, one vote (or splittable), but the candidates are in party groups and can share votes. E.g. if a series needs 10 votes to win, and sports animes gets 4, 4, and 3 votes, and are acknowledged as a group, then one of them should win.

How this applies to us

What we used a few years ago was everyone voting on each series in turn, yes half-yes abstain or no, and we recorded the sum of yes and half-yes, and nos. This is close to score voting, except that something with a large net total might still have been vetoed for having a bunch of no votes. I think this is even more majoritarian: range voting + ad hoc minority veto. After that I think we had a round of limited voting, 6 slots 4 votes, but it's been a while.

Last time we had a weird superbloc vote -- 8 votes -- followed by several rounds of limited voting. All sped up by us voting directly on the blackboard, thus in parallel. That can have the effect of erasing votes you've case which are useless or unnecessary, which actually helps proportionality -- votes cycles around, but ideally it would settle down with the votes evenly distributed over six series.

For the past movie night, we had 3 stackable votes -- cumulative -- but then we took the top four winners, and had an SNTV round to pick the 3 winners. I'm not sure this repeated use of semi-proportional systems makes sense. It definitely doesn't if, say, we picked 3 winners, then had a second around to pick the other three: that would let the majority or plurality get its way, then have a second chance to have its way. Repeated votes to winnow down the pool might make sense, I'm not sure.

Still, my current recommendation would be approval voting, let everyone vote on everything, ad hoc the finalists -- definitely anything with a majority of votes, followed by others do get a decent list of candidates -- then a cumulative round, perhaps explicitly letting people change their votes until it settles down, for proportional choice within the majority-approved finalists.

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