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[Edit: I found a transcript of a similar though short talk from Stanford 2000:
http://technetcast.ddj.com/tnc_play_stream.html?stream_id=256 ]
As mentioned, this happened yesterday at A-Life X. He said it was a longer version of what he gave at the Singularity Summit in Stanford in May, and now I understand why the extropians list wasn't in as much of a tizzy as I expected -- I'd thought he'd be more harshly skeptical.
Executive summary: he largely talked about Ray Kurzweil's books, and his own reaction to the ideas, and how it seems like a confusing (to him) mix of crackpottery and seriously referenced material, and he doesn't know quite what to make of it, but thinks it has to be taken seriously.
"Do I believe in the Singularity? I don't know. But the ideas aren't entirely cracked. And even if I say I think the Turing Test will be passed 100 years from now, or 500, that's just putting off the scenario." -- my paraphrase.
http://technetcast.ddj.com/tnc_play_stream.html?stream_id=256 ]
As mentioned, this happened yesterday at A-Life X. He said it was a longer version of what he gave at the Singularity Summit in Stanford in May, and now I understand why the extropians list wasn't in as much of a tizzy as I expected -- I'd thought he'd be more harshly skeptical.
Executive summary: he largely talked about Ray Kurzweil's books, and his own reaction to the ideas, and how it seems like a confusing (to him) mix of crackpottery and seriously referenced material, and he doesn't know quite what to make of it, but thinks it has to be taken seriously.
"Do I believe in the Singularity? I don't know. But the ideas aren't entirely cracked. And even if I say I think the Turing Test will be passed 100 years from now, or 500, that's just putting off the scenario." -- my paraphrase.