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I've seen various people say "everyone's going to get omicron" -- usually in a smug way, along with "covid is endemic", implying that it's foolish to try to avoid it. Usually these people are healthy and not obviously possessed of frail people they care about. At any rate, I'm inclined to try to prove them wrong, and avoid getting it until they roll out new vaccines or prove that it's really "just a cold" or something. Which means, basically, no unmasked contact with people until rates have come down a lot. But come down how much?
Here's one approach: an 80 year lifespan is close to 30,000 days, so if the daily case rate were 1 in 30,000, or 33 in a million, that would (very simplistically) imply a near 100% chance of covid in the lifespan. Halve the rate to aim for 50% chance; halve again since the real infection rate is greater than the reported rate, and we're at 8 cases per million. So if the rate is that low, then it's safe to eat out (dining inside)... every day? Sometimes? Not really clear, but there's at least a feeling that such a rate is approaching safety.
Of course, the real infection rate might be 4x the reported rate, not 2x. Or more. OTOH, I'm already halfway through my lifespan, so can maybe regain a factor of 2.
It's tempting to give myself credit for a safer lifestyle -- living alone, working at home, not going to bars -- but the main point of this exercise is to gauge when it would be safe to live unsafely again, e.g. dining out. And just as, for STD purposes, when you have unsafe sex with someone you're in a sense having sex with everyone they've had sex with in the past year, so for covid purposes, once you mingle unmasked with strangers, you're breathing not just their air but all the air they've shared over the past week, and all the other safety in your life stops mattering. Or matters in limiting how often you roll the dice of infection, but still, you're rolling at all.
Hmm, (I'm thinking out loud, as it were), that may help clarify things. One unmasked interaction is one die roll. If I eat out every 2-3 days, that's fewer die rolls than doing so every day, fewer engagements with the infection network. If I go to a bar, that's like one very intense interaction, or a lot of die rolls.
Https://microcovid.org is a much more sophisticated approach to the whole question, purporting to give risks for various scenarios; whether it's more accurate than just eyeballing the local infection rate, I can't say.
8 per million is pretty stringent. Right now only 3 'countries' whose testing I might trust qualify: China, Taiwan, Hong Kong. Japan did until a couple days ago, but is rapidly doubling: 2 days ago 19, yesterday 33. Korea has been holding the line around 80 per million. Even when things were calmer few qualified, though New Zealand and Vietnam were among that number, and Korea.
By contrast, currently daily infections are hitting 5000 per million in many places, and probably hitting the limits of testing capacity.
I haven't actually lived that stringently; when I had dim sum in Toronto, the local case rate was I dunno, maybe 50? 100? OTOH I did that once, somewhat nervously. I'd also eaten out (inside) in SF and Quebec, with I forget what case rates, but usually with open doors or almost no other diners.
At 50 per million, eating out twice a week is 100 die rolls, for roughly 0.5% chance of covid in a year.
Well, the melatonin is kicking in, so I'll end it here.
Here's one approach: an 80 year lifespan is close to 30,000 days, so if the daily case rate were 1 in 30,000, or 33 in a million, that would (very simplistically) imply a near 100% chance of covid in the lifespan. Halve the rate to aim for 50% chance; halve again since the real infection rate is greater than the reported rate, and we're at 8 cases per million. So if the rate is that low, then it's safe to eat out (dining inside)... every day? Sometimes? Not really clear, but there's at least a feeling that such a rate is approaching safety.
Of course, the real infection rate might be 4x the reported rate, not 2x. Or more. OTOH, I'm already halfway through my lifespan, so can maybe regain a factor of 2.
It's tempting to give myself credit for a safer lifestyle -- living alone, working at home, not going to bars -- but the main point of this exercise is to gauge when it would be safe to live unsafely again, e.g. dining out. And just as, for STD purposes, when you have unsafe sex with someone you're in a sense having sex with everyone they've had sex with in the past year, so for covid purposes, once you mingle unmasked with strangers, you're breathing not just their air but all the air they've shared over the past week, and all the other safety in your life stops mattering. Or matters in limiting how often you roll the dice of infection, but still, you're rolling at all.
Hmm, (I'm thinking out loud, as it were), that may help clarify things. One unmasked interaction is one die roll. If I eat out every 2-3 days, that's fewer die rolls than doing so every day, fewer engagements with the infection network. If I go to a bar, that's like one very intense interaction, or a lot of die rolls.
Https://microcovid.org is a much more sophisticated approach to the whole question, purporting to give risks for various scenarios; whether it's more accurate than just eyeballing the local infection rate, I can't say.
8 per million is pretty stringent. Right now only 3 'countries' whose testing I might trust qualify: China, Taiwan, Hong Kong. Japan did until a couple days ago, but is rapidly doubling: 2 days ago 19, yesterday 33. Korea has been holding the line around 80 per million. Even when things were calmer few qualified, though New Zealand and Vietnam were among that number, and Korea.
By contrast, currently daily infections are hitting 5000 per million in many places, and probably hitting the limits of testing capacity.
I haven't actually lived that stringently; when I had dim sum in Toronto, the local case rate was I dunno, maybe 50? 100? OTOH I did that once, somewhat nervously. I'd also eaten out (inside) in SF and Quebec, with I forget what case rates, but usually with open doors or almost no other diners.
At 50 per million, eating out twice a week is 100 die rolls, for roughly 0.5% chance of covid in a year.
Well, the melatonin is kicking in, so I'll end it here.
no subject
Date: 2022-01-09 14:59 (UTC)From: