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Last night I had a bit of runny nose. This is something that happens on occasion, resolving overnight, and I live with a cat, to which I should be allergic. Still, I decided to test today, with combined Flu/Covid tests. ( Read more... )
Japan, masks, and flu
2021-12-24 18:38So, Japanese people wear masks a lot. Probably the main thing that got them through most of the pandemic, along with avoiding "the three Cs" and good contact tracing; Japan never had lockdowns. (And was worst in class for rich Asian countries for most of the pandemic, too.) But they already had the custom of wearing masks when sick, to protect others. So I wondered, did that make an observable difference in flu seasons, say?
( Long )
So what's the final verdict? It's *possible* that Japan has a much lower flu burden than the US: the strongest case for that is comparative hospitalizations per capita, with an 8-fold ratio. There's also a 4x ratio in deaths -- though that might be mostly canceled out if the US is estimating 'flu-associated' deaths (pulmonary and pneumonia and such, not just respiratory) and Japan isn't. OTOH medical visits don't seem dissimilar, given the greater likelihood of Japanese people to go see a doctor. But if flu transmission is similar, then Japan must have a much *lower* chance of being hospitalized for flu, which would be odd. Epidemiology is hard! Especially as a layman sticking my nose in and not knowing the messy details.
And of course even if there is a big difference in cases or deaths, I've done nothing to show that masking is responsible, though intuitively, sick people wearing masks when out of the house should help a lot.
( Long )
So what's the final verdict? It's *possible* that Japan has a much lower flu burden than the US: the strongest case for that is comparative hospitalizations per capita, with an 8-fold ratio. There's also a 4x ratio in deaths -- though that might be mostly canceled out if the US is estimating 'flu-associated' deaths (pulmonary and pneumonia and such, not just respiratory) and Japan isn't. OTOH medical visits don't seem dissimilar, given the greater likelihood of Japanese people to go see a doctor. But if flu transmission is similar, then Japan must have a much *lower* chance of being hospitalized for flu, which would be odd. Epidemiology is hard! Especially as a layman sticking my nose in and not knowing the messy details.
And of course even if there is a big difference in cases or deaths, I've done nothing to show that masking is responsible, though intuitively, sick people wearing masks when out of the house should help a lot.
