car deaths per km

[mindstalk]

This is worth calling out from the previous post: look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate and sort by the various columns. In particular the third one, road deaths per billion vehicle-km. US is 7.3, Japan is 6.4, not hugely better. Most rich countries are better, down to 3.4 (UK) or Norway (3.0) Many rich countries are least 1/3 better than the US (5.1 or lower).

So when we talk about the 40,000 car crash deaths a year in the US, and how preventable they are, there are two dimensions: reducing the amount driven, by increasing density and mass transit and bikeability, and improving the safety of cars as they are driven, by I don't know what means exactly but roads can clearly have only 40% the death rate of US ones.

Between the two, well, Canada and Australia (large car-loving countries like the US) have less than half the road deaths per capita of the US, so 20,000 American deaths/year are easily preventable. Looking at the UK or Nordic countries, 30,000 deaths/year are preventable.

Comments

[elusiveat]

Seems like it would be worth running the numbers to disentangle this from typical speed limits in each nation / state / etc.

I'd guess that higher density would generally correlate with lower maximum legal speeds, which would hit both dimensions at once.

[mindstalk]

I guess that lower speeds are part of the reason for lower deaths per vehicle distance. Lowering urban speed limits is part of Vision Zero programs in the USA.

[heron61]

Is there solid data that this is the reason? I looked over the table and South Korea has roughly twice the deaths per billion vehicle-km, and their speed limits seem similar to ours (although somewhat higher in cities, which might make sufficient difference).

[mindstalk]

I said *guess* and *part*. I think effective lowering of speed limits is followed by lower death rates, but I don't have a source handy, and I didn't say that would explain all of international differences. Driver quality or attitudes toward drunk driving would matter too.

(But http://infographic.statista.com/normal/chartoftheday_5504_the_worst_countries_in_the_world_for_drunk_driving_n.jpg claims S Korea is much lower in drunk driving than the US, which is a bit lower than Canada, so that doesn't work.)

https://www.worldnomads.com/travel-safety/eastern-asia/south-korea/traffic-the-amazing-race suggests that driving practices are just that aggressive. Another article said SK had reduced its deaths by more than half... *down* to the deaths/100,000 people in the wikipedia table.

https://kojects.com/2015/11/04/traffic-accidents-in-korea/ also gives "dangerous behavior", distinct from speeding, ignoring signals, or tailgating, as the main reason. It also mentions high legal urban speeds.

[heron61]

I hadn't considered driving habits as a major source of the difference, but that sounds like changing them would be a long-term project requiring major changes in teaching teens how to drive - I'm betting we'll have automatic cars before this could make a major impact.

I also wonder if US drivers are simply worse than drivers in the EU. As for speed, wikpedia mentions that urban speeds in SK are 60-80 kph, so I think a major factor is how this actually breaks down - 60 kph isn't that much higher than most US urban speeds, but 80 definitely is.

[mindstalk]

The people in charge of developing self-driving cars keep backpedaling their optimistic predictions. It's looking like a classic case of AI overreach.

US driving habits don't seem that bad. Lowering speed limits, traffic calming, and enabling less driving would be the low hanging fruit.

[heron61]

The people in charge of developing self-driving cars keep backpedaling their optimistic predictions. It's looking like a classic case of AI overreach.

Sure, but they seem possible by 2030, and that's the earlier that I'd expect any change in driver education to have a notable impact on auto deaths/